Friday, 8 January 2016

All is about probability

Have you ever thought about how a goalkeeper dives for the ball or a dog runs to catch something?! Mathematical modeling and solving some complex time related differential equations? No way! It seems that it is not that much related to mathematics or physics or dynamics that we human know because most animals do many complex things in their daily life exactly like we human, hunting, using shortcuts while moving and so on.

 A goalkeeper doesn't model the ball's movement with complicated mathematical formulas, it just uses  his already practiced patterns.
If you ask me, I'll say it is all about probability. Let's consider a simple example. We are going to model the route you take to work every morning. We monitor you and see for a month in which we have 24 working days you have taken route A for 20 days and route B for only 4 days.

It is a simple pattern and if someone knows he/she can easily find out the best route to see you there.  This is in fact exactly what a goalkeeper does or even a dog when they run for a ball or a frisbee. Even most basic daily patterns we or animals use are more complicated than our simple route selection. For now, we just know with the chance of 20/24 you'll choose route A and 4/24 route B. Now let's consider while we are monitoring you in those days we collect another data like if it is raining or not. Now the collecting data will give us a better prediction information.

 As far as we know a dog doesn't know mathematics like us but naturally his brain learns and models the pattern of  moving throwing frisbees.
For example if we don't consider the weather condition we only know with probability of 20/24 you'll take route A, but if we consider it is raining the collected information will defiantly give us a better prediction for example if we know you always take route B when it is raining then we know since it is raining you are not going to take route A even though we know with probability of 20/24 you usually take route A.

This is exactly how a goalkeeper dives for the ball since he has had many hours of practicing he/she has collected information about the shoots and can predicts the ball's movement. Don't forget prediction is nothing other than finding the probabilities of happening situations or outcomes ... the more you practice the more information you gather and the better prediction you can have.